The Leno Experiment

The fall season is off and running, and ratings reports are coming back with the numbers that will determine a shows fate as the season progresses.  (The first fatality is already reported – CW’s The Beautiful Life – so if you haven’t seen the show yet, you won’t.)  Of interest to many people – from NBC executives and parent company GE shareholders to actors and writers bemoaning the loss of 5 hours of primetime gold (i.e. employment opportunities) – is Jay Leno’s show, or as some have been calling it, “The Leno Experiment.” 

The first numbers in looked promising:  The show’s premiere had 18.4 million viewers, winning it the number 2 spot for the night.  But The Jay Leno Show brought in less than 6 million viewers, dropping sharply as CBS rolled out its drama series’ debuts last week.  Across the networks, the outlook was good for scripted show supporters, as new shows and old held the ratings reigns over non-scripted fare through September 25^th.

Those who regard a Leno success story as the final nail in the coffin of network television as we’ve known it breathed a sigh of relief and posted “I told you so’s” over the blogosphere.

However, celebration may not be in order after all.

Without factors such as costly location shoots, pricey development periods and expensive casts, shows like Leno’s are simply more economical.  And this notion might just trump any ratings woes.

Per the Hollywood Reporter, head of the non-scripted division of the William Morris Endeavor agency John Ferriter estimated that “With just a 1.5 rating, The Jay Leno Show, could make $300 million a year for NBC – and probably spark other networks to follow suit.”

Granted, there could still be a small glimmer of hope:  It seems unlikely that the other networks would abandon offerings that are bringing them success in favor of battling with NBC head-to-head with a matching format.

Or so we hope.